January 2025 marks a turning point in the structure of global maritime transport.
The dissolution of the 2M alliance (Maersk–MSC), which dominated East-West traffic for a decade, opens a new competitive scenario.
Both shipping companies are seeking operational autonomy and flexibility to redesign their service networks.
While they reorganize their fleets, a period of adjustments and reduced reliability in existing services is expected.
At the same time, the new US-China trade agreement (November 2025) is simplifying logistics flows: the reduction of tariffs allows for the recovery of direct routes and reduces dependence on costly transshipment through third countries.
Opportunities and risks
- Negotiation window: the fragmentation of supply forces shipping companies to compete, creating a favorable environment for reviewing contractual conditions 2026.
- Diversification: distributing volumes among several shipping companies mitigates risk during the transition.
- Route optimization: review flows with transshipment and take advantage of the return of more efficient direct routes.
Recommendations from AGC
- Negotiate with a strategic vision. Do not base contracts on current market peaks, but on indices and adjustment clauses.
- Control structural costs. Audit ETS and fuel surcharges separately from the base freight.
- Strengthen operational resilience. Design contingency plans (Suez, Cabo, multimodal) and monitor the reliability of new services.
The end of 2M not only fragments the market, but also opens an opportunity to renegotiate on better terms and strengthen control over the global logistics network.
