The main industry indices—Drewry, Xeneta, and the Sea-Intelligence forecasts—agree on something we haven’t seen for almost a decade: freight rates will continue to fall in 2026. However, this decline is not necessarily a sign of a healthy market, but rather the direct consequence of structural overcapacity.
Why are prices falling?
Three factors explain the phenomenon:
- Excess capacity: During the 2021–2022 boom, shipping companies ordered hundreds of new vessels. Many of these entered service in 2024–2025, just as global demand has moderated. This creates a surplus that is pushing prices down.
- Weaker-than-expected demand: According to UNCTAD, maritime trade growth will barely reach 2% annually in the coming years. This is not enough to absorb the available fleet.
- Rebalancing after the Red Sea crisis: Diversions around Africa artificially inflated freight rates. As the Suez route normalizes, some of that pressure will dissipate.
What does this mean for Spanish exporters and importers?
At first glance, this is good news. Lower rates mean:
- Lower cost per container.
- Greater competitiveness for exports.
- Better profit margins for imported products.
But there’s a critical nuance… when prices fall too low, reliability worsens.
Shipping companies cut costs by:
- Blank sailings.
- Slow steaming.
- Route changes with very little notice.
This can cause delays and operational strain, even in a “cheap” market.
Recommendations for Spanish companies
- Combining fixed-term contracts and spot market pricing: a balance between security and cost savings.
- Diversifying shipping lines and alliances: avoiding dependence on a single operator.
- Negotiating service commitments, not just price: transit time, frequency, cancellation penalties.
- Taking advantage of the downturn to strengthen resilience: investing in more comprehensive insurance, safety stock, or advanced planning.
2026 will be a year of low prices, yes, but also of greater operational complexity. The advantage will lie with the companies that anticipate these adjustments.
