Shipping in Europe is about to face a massive cost restructuring. Sustainability is no longer optional; it’s a fixed, structural operating cost. The European Union (EU) has fully integrated the sector into its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), transforming its climate commitment into an immediate economic challenge for any company that relies on the maritime supply chain.
At ACG Newtral, we analyze the imminent increase in costs and propose strategies to minimize the impact on your logistics operations.
The impending escalation: why costs will rise by up to 43%
The planned increase in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) surcharges, expected to reach approximately 43% in the first quarter of 2026, is not simply an inflation adjustment. It is the direct result of a radical regulatory tightening that ends the transition period.
The two main causes of this increase in the “structural rate” are:
- Expansion of CO2 Coverage to 100%: Until 2025, the system only covered a partial percentage of emissions (70% in 2025), allowing for a gradual internalization of the cost. From January 2026, this residual exemption will be eliminated. Coverage will expand to 100% of CO2 emissions from vessels calling at EU ports.
- Inclusion of Additional Greenhouse Gases (GHGs): In addition to CO2, the regulations will include other high-impact GHGs: methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NO). This inclusion broadens the tax base.
The key to the problem: conversion by Global Warming Potential (GWP)
The real impact of including CH4 and NO lies in their Global Warming Potential (GWP). The EU ETS operates using the European Union Allocation (EUA), which is equivalent to one tonne of CO2.
To include other gases, the GWP is used to convert them to “tonnes of CO2 equivalent” (CO2e). As shown below, these gases are dramatically more expensive per tonne emitted:
| Greenhouse Gas (GHG) | GWP at 100 years (Approx.) | Cost in EU ETS (USA) |
| Carbon Dioxide (CO2) | 1 | 1 ton = 1 EUA |
| Methane (CH4) | 28 – 30 | 1 ton = 28-30 EUA |
| Nitrous Oxide (NO) | 265 – 298 | 1 ton = 265-298 EUA |
Methane (released as methane slip by LNG carriers) has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) 28 times higher than that of CO2, and nitrous oxide is almost 300 times more potent than CO2. This means that small amounts of these gases released during combustion translate into an exponentially higher surcharge cost for the shipping company, which is inevitably passed on to the end customer.
Strategic solutions for clients: avoiding and minimizing the problem
The cost of carbon is now a strategic variable. The best defense for our clients is planning and informed partner selection.
Minimization strategy: fleet selection
Although the fee is mandatory, the passed-on surcharge can be minimized by selecting shipping companies with more efficient fleets.
- Fleet Efficiency Audit (CII and EPI): Request efficiency data from your carriers, such as the Carbon Intensity Index (CII) and the Energy Performance Indicator (EPI). Fleets rated A or B will incur lower EU ETS costs and therefore apply lower surcharges than fleets rated D or E.
- Fuel Type Analysis: For LNG routes, it is crucial to ask if the shipping company uses engines that actively mitigate methane slip (unburned methane that escapes). If they do not, the CO2 savings may be offset by the high cost of CH4 (GWP 28).
Avoidance strategy: diversification and intermodal logistics
The most direct way to avoid the maritime surcharge is to reduce exposure to it.
- Shift to European Intermodal: For freight transport within Europe, reassess migrating to rail or inland waterway networks. These modes of transport typically have a lower carbon footprint and are subject to different (often more favorable) emissions frameworks than maritime transport.
- Entry Point Optimization: Explore the possibility of using transshipment ports outside the EU, known in the industry as ‘freight diversion,’ or utilize ports that allow for faster and more efficient connections to rail or road, minimizing the portion of the journey subject to 100% EU ETS maritime regulations.
Control strategy: load efficiency
Since the cost is prorated per container (TEU), optimizing the use of the unit is essential.
- Maximizing the Fill Factor (CBM): Ensure your full container loads (FCL) are loaded to their maximum cubic capacity. The surcharge is applied to the container; by maximizing volume, you reduce the EU ETS cost per unit of finished product.
- Smart Consolidation (LCL): Use trusted partners like ACG Newtral for less-than-container load (LCL) consolidation. This allows you to group and prorate the EUA cost more efficiently among multiple shippers, often offering a lower unit freight price.
The ACG Newtral value proposition
The EU ETS is a permanent structural cost. Our goal is to turn the 2026 challenge into a competitive advantage for your business through proactive planning.
At ACG Newtral, we actively monitor fleet efficiency and analyze the implicit costs of greenhouse gases. We are committed to providing you with smart logistics options that integrate the true cost of carbon, ensuring your supply chain is both profitable and sustainable.
