The recent reduction in attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea by Houthi armed groups has brought some hope back to the main maritime artery between Asia and Europe. After almost two years of tension, forced diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, and widespread cost overruns, the industry is beginning to ask itself: is it time to trust Suez again?
The reality is more nuanced.
The strategic importance of the Red Sea
Thirty percent of global container traffic depends on this corridor. When the area becomes unsafe, shipping companies are forced to sail around Africa, adding 10 to 15 days to transit time, increasing fuel consumption, reducing effective market capacity, and driving up insurance costs.
The direct consequence for Spanish exporters and importers is clear:
What has changed now?
The announcement of a temporary cessation of attacks has eased the pressure. Some shipping companies have begun to assess a gradual reopening of the Suez route, but none will act hastily. Insurers recommend caution, and major maritime alliances are keeping part of their fleets diverted until they can confirm that the truce is sustainable.
Why doesn’t this pause guarantee stability?
- The political conflict in the region remains active.
- The declaration of a pause is conditional and reversible.
- The parties involved have not ruled out intervening in maritime traffic if the situation escalates again.
In short: the risk has decreased, but it has not disappeared.
Recommendations for Spanish exporters and importers
- Plan routes with two scenarios: one via Suez if security is consolidated, and another via Africa if the situation deteriorates.
- Negotiate flexible rates: in times of uncertainty, rigid contracts can become a trap.
- Ensure space availability in advance: shipping companies reorganize their capacity at short notice when there are changes in security.
- Monitor maritime risk alerts in real time: up-to-date information allows for adjusting inventories and delivery times.
The trend for 2026 points to a slow normalization, but we are still far from a stable scenario. The key will be to anticipate changes and not rely exclusively on a single corridor.
