Global logistics for 2026 is caught between the false calm of the Red Sea and a new opportunity in the Panama Canal. We explain why the risk has shifted and how to negotiate advantageous rates. In the Red Sea, lower insurance costs don’t guarantee security, as the risk has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the maintenance of the Cape of Good Hope route to ensure stability. Conversely, the Panama Canal is free of draft restrictions, but low demand for front-loading in the US creates a unique negotiation window to secure preferential rates and space for 2026.
Questions we have answered in this article
- Is it safe to ship goods through the Suez Canal again after the insurance price reduction?
- Why have costs risen so dramatically in the Persian Gulf if the Red Sea is calmer?
- When are shipping routes in the Middle East expected to return to normal?
- Are there still draft or passage restrictions in the Panama Canal?
- How will US tariff policy affect shipping in 2026?
Global logistics no longer battles a single front, but rather multiple isolated fires demanding diametrically opposed strategies. At AGC Newtral, we’ve analyzed the landscape for 2026, and the conclusion is undeniable: risk management has become fragmented. It’s no longer enough to simply avoid open conflict zones; now, you must understand the microeconomics and unique geopolitics of each strategic corridor. This includes the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Panama Canal.
Below, we break down, point by point, what’s happening at these vital chokepoints for your trade with Spain. We’ll show you how to protect your supply chain.
The Middle East: The Trap of False Calm and Bifurcated Risk
The market is sending mixed signals that could mislead any trader. On the one hand, we see a sense of apparent normalization in the Red Sea. This is reflected in a dramatic drop in insurance costs, tempting one to think of an imminent return to the Suez route. However, this sense of security is, in our view, partial and deeply misleading. On the other hand, the risk of conflict has not disappeared, it has simply shifted a few kilometers east, now concentrated in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.
The reasons for the events and how they affect Spain
Why aren’t major shipping companies returning if insuring vessels is cheaper? Simple: operational trust is broken. A military re-escalation could happen in a matter of hours. The conflict has mutated in form and geography, forcing us to adopt a geographically “bifurcated” perspective in risk assessment.
The de-escalation in the Red Sea has been met with relief by insurers, who have reduced additional war risk premiums from 0.5% to 0.2% of the vessel’s value. This makes passage through the Suez Canal, in theory, tolerable. However, traffic remains depressed: barely 36 ships a day will cross the canal in 2025, a figure far lower than in 2023.
The recent Iranian seizure of the oil tanker Talara in the Persian Gulf has been interpreted as a significant escalation. This incident, in which state forces intercepted a civilian vessel in strategic waters, has triggered alarm bells in the Strait of Hormuz. The cost of risk in this key area, which channels a large portion of the world’s crude oil, has doubled.
The impact on Spanish companies is twofold:
- The fastest route from Asia (Suez) remains an extremely risky proposition.
- The Persian Gulf route, crucial for our energy security, is becoming drastically more expensive and complicating the legal management of shipments.
Our solution: stick to the long route and review your policies
At AGC Newtral, we strongly recommend that you maintain the route around the Cape of Good Hope until at least the second quarter of 2026.
Why we recommend this:
Although insurance costs in Suez have decreased, operational volatility is extreme. Freight quotes are valid for barely 24 hours, and cancellation clauses are only valid for 96 hours. You cannot plan a stable supply chain with this level of uncertainty. Accepting the extra 10 to 14 days of transit around Africa guarantees that your goods will reach port, eliminating the risk of being caught in a sudden blockade.
If, due to the nature of your products, you must operate in the Persian Gulf, you need to review your insurance coverage immediately. Do this to absorb the impact of the 60% increase in hull and machinery insurance premiums.
Panama Canal: When there is plenty of water but not enough demand
For a long time, the lack of rain and drought were the biggest logistical challenge in Panama. However, now that the water has returned and the restrictions have been lifted, the problem is purely economic. The Panama Canal is operating at full technical capacity, but ships simply aren’t arriving in the volumes that were expected by 2026. Idle capacity is a reality.
The reasons for the events and how they affect Spain
The Panama Canal Authority has achieved a resounding operational success. They have maintained the maximum draft of 50 feet throughout the 2025 dry season. The specter of physical or draft restrictions has been eliminated. This is excellent news for Spanish companies with interests in the Pacific or the US East Coast. The risk of having to divert containers or reduce cargo due to draft issues has been eliminated.
Despite this, the projection for 2026 is only 33 transits per day. This figure is below its capacity of 36, a key fact.
The main reason is the phenomenon of “frontloading”: companies in the US have massively brought forward their imports to avoid future tariffs. This has created artificial demand now, which will leave a noticeable gap throughout 2026. Container ships are the engine of the canal, generating 45% of its revenue. Therefore, this decline is a barometer of weak demand.
For the Spanish exporter operating with Latin America or the US West Coast, this is a warning sign about purchasing power, but, paradoxically, a huge logistical opportunity.
Our solution: negotiate aggressively and prioritize this route
Take advantage of the canal’s idle capacity. Our recommendation is to negotiate aggressively and prioritize this route in your freight contracts.
Why we suggest this:
Unlike the volatile Suez route, Panama is now an absolutely reliable and predictable corridor. With transit demand declining in 2026, shipping lines will have ample space and, more importantly, the need to fill their vessels. This is the perfect time to negotiate preferential rates on routes through the canal. Use weak demand to your advantage. Secure contracts that guarantee you space at a competitive price. This will ensure your products reach American markets without the dreaded delays of previous years.
