The global maritime market is experiencing a period of contradiction.
Despite a structural overcapacity that could extend until 2030, freight rates have rebounded in recent weeks for reasons that have little to do with actual demand.
According to the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), freight rates rose 4% on October 30 to 1,822 USD/FEU, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stabilized near 1,550 points.
This increase is not due to an economic recovery, but rather to tactical supply management by the major shipping companies. These companies are implementing General Fare Restoration Initiatives (GRIs) and Blank Sailings (coordinated cancellations of sailings) to create an artificial price spike before the 2026 annual contract negotiations.
Direct effects on importers and exporters
- Operational uncertainty: cancellations, delays, and deviations that affect delivery times.
- Contractual risk: those who sign contracts now could lock in rates inflated by current factors.
- Reduced planning control: volatility makes inventory management difficult.
Recommendations from AGC
- Avoid hasty decisions. Don’t close contracts based on short-term peaks.
- Negotiate with data. Use benchmark indices (WCI, SCFI) and review clauses.
- Diversify carriers. Reduce dependence on a single alliance to mitigate the impact of blank sailings.
- Demand visibility. Work with carriers that provide real-time information on cancellations and availability.
The message is clear: informed patience and data-driven management will be key to protecting profitability throughout the 2026 cycle.
