Spot freight rates show an increase in October 2025 without real demand support. At AGC Newtral, we analyze how carriers manage capacity, what it means for your exports and imports, and what strategies you should adopt to avoid falling into the trap of artificial volatility.
Why are spot freight rates rising despite weak actual demand?
This question occupies us today at AGC Newtral because the global maritime market is going through a phase full of contradictions: indices such as the SCFI (Shanghai Shipping Exchange) or Drewry’s WCI have broken a prolonged downward trend and are beginning a rebound towards October 2025, although behind this there is no solid growth in demand. For example, a value of 1,403.46 points is recorded in the container freight index for the end of October.
What drives this phenomenon? First of all, the active management of supply by the major shipping alliances. Carrier groups (such as 2M Alliance, THE Alliance, and Ocean Alliance) increasingly resort to the mechanism of blank sailings (intentionally canceled voyages) to remove capacity from the market and thus contain the fall in rates. In 2025, this strategy has intensified and become more coordinated.
Secondly, persistent congestion at ports and vessel idling contribute to the “actual usable capacity” being lower than the theoretical capacity. According to a cancellation tracker by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, between weeks 44 and 48 of 2025, approximately 7% of scheduled departures on East-West routes were withdrawn.
Thirdly, although actual demand remains moderate —for example, year-on-year import-export growth in China is estimated at 5.7% in the first four months of 2025— the volume is still far from justifying the recent tariff rebound. This micro-recovery in volume is being used by carriers as an excuse to manipulate the market.
What are the implications for exporters and importers?
From our experience at AGC Newtral, we see three major challenges:
- If you anchor your logistics forecasts to spot rates, you might be in for a surprise: the current peaks are more driven by capacity dynamics than by actual freight demand. Therefore, long-term base freight (contracts) remains under pressure due to structural overcapacity (it is estimated that the order book of new TEUs exceeds 7 million, more than 25% of the existing fleet).
- Coordinated sail cancellations involve greater operational uncertainty: if your cargo depends on a specific alliance and blank sailings occur, you may face delays, container rollovers, or reassignment to secondary routes. Diversifying carriers and freight forwarders is not just advisable; it becomes essential in this environment.
- Digital visibility and flexibility become competitive levers. You need platforms that inform you in real time about schedule changes, cancellations, or deviations and that allow you to reconfigure routes on the go; otherwise, your supply chain will be at risk.
So, what do we suggest you do?
- Do not base your logistical calculations solely on current spot rates: use them as an alert signal rather than as a budget foundation. Opt for freight contracts (FAK/base) for 2026 negotiated now while supply is still under pressure.
- Diversify transportation and freight forwarding relationships: avoid exclusive dependence on a dominant alliance; consider alternative routes or even complementary modes (rail-sea) when feasible.
- Invest in visibility and tracking platforms: if you don’t know within 24 hours that a shipment has been canceled, the impact on your supply chain will be both logistical and financial.
- Speed up the review of your global supply chain: when volatility is managed from the capacity side, as it is now, rate spikes can appear that affect your total cost without warning.
At AGC Newtral, we believe that this situation requires moving from an approach of “waiting for freight rates to drop” to an approach of “managing volatility as a structural cost.” The contradiction of spot freight (rising without real demand) should not be mistaken for a market recovery: it is, rather, a strategy for balancing supply. As an exporter or importer, you must anticipate, not react.
When rates rise due to structural reasons and not because of demand, the key is your ability to adapt, diversify, and maintain visibility. If you don’t have it, you will be paying a higher price without having a real advantage.
In short: the artificial volatility of the spot freight is a wake-up call. And well-planned action is your best response.
