Data from the end of November paints a picture of apparent relief across the globe. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 2% week-on-week, settling at $1,806 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Rates from Shanghai to Genoa (a vital Mediterranean port) remained close to $2,300. This weakness reflects structural overcapacity: the global fleet is growing by 6.9% while demand is only increasing by 3%.
However, this calm masks a tactical offensive by the carriers. Shipping lines have announced drastic increases in Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates for the Far East-Mediterranean route. MSC has set a base target price of $4,750 USD per 40′ HC for the Western Mediterranean, effective mid-December. CMA CGM has announced even higher maximum targets, around $6,300 USD.
Why the tactical aggression?
This disparity between the spot price (USD 2,300) and the FAK target price (USD 4,750) is not accidental. It is a yield management strategy employed by the major shipping lines, which operate in a highly concentrated market.
Faced with the certainty of an oversupply that depresses immediate prices, carriers use FAK announcements to establish an artificially high trading floor for 2026 contracts. Their goal is not to collect $4,750 immediately, but to force shippers (and, by extension, consumers) to accept a substantial premium over actual market rates in exchange for guaranteed space. This upward pressure could reintroduce instability into the cost chain, impacting inflation of imported goods.
Economic implications and transparency solutions
The solution to this price manipulation lies in the widespread adoption of transparency and risk hedging instruments:
- Freight Financing: The key is to move from fixed and volatile contracts to Index-Linked Contracts, which link the transport price to public and auditable indices such as the FBX or the WCI. This ensures that the cost remains linked to real market conditions.
- Service Guarantee (Floor and Ceiling): For these contracts to work, they must include Floor and Ceiling clauses. The Ceiling protects Spanish companies from price spikes such as the announced FAKs, and the Floor guarantees the shipping company a minimum margin, ensuring reliability and cargo space.
- Smart Intermediation: SMEs should turn to NVOCCs (Non-Vessel Operating Common Carriers), large capacity buyers who, thanks to their volume, obtain more stable rates closer to the real price, thus protecting smaller shippers from the aggressiveness of the carrier market.
