Tariffs have become a structural risk for exporters and importers. Discover how to anticipate their impact and adapt your logistics strategy.
Why are tariffs no longer just an economic barrier but a structural cost that affects the entire supply chain?
At AGC Newtral we have observed that in May 2025 up to 77% of industrial exporters indicated import tariffs as their main concern. This figure reveals that we are dealing with more than just a trade friction: it is a factor that influences production, export, transit, and insurance decisions.
First, because trade policy has ceased to be a purely tariff-based tool and has become an instrument of geoeconomic pressure. For example, the United States threatened to impose a 15% tariff on imports from the European Union starting August 1, 2025, which confirms how trade blocs are now operating in an environment of greater uncertainty.
This evolution causes consequences that go beyond the direct cost of the tariff. When a decline in European exports to the U.S. of around 10% to 15% is anticipated, not only do the revenues of exporting companies decrease, but the logistic capacity structure is also affected: ships that transported return cargoes (backhaul) lose volume, which means that shipping lines have to move empty containers or withdraw ships. This cost is ultimately passed on to routes that might seem unrelated to the conflict, making transportation to Asia or Latin America more expensive.
From the perspective of logistics and international maritime transport, this means that exposure to tariff costs must be integrated as a risk variable in the company’s operational model. It is not enough to calculate freight, insurance, and transit times. A serious review should consider: which products are most exposed to future tariffs, in which markets, and which routes or countries of origin could be vulnerable.
At AGC Newtral, we recommend the following courses of action to our clients:
- Conduct a tariff exposure audit: Analyze your most sensitive export products, destination countries, and historical tariff data or tariff threat information. This will allow you to anticipate financial impact and adjust pricing, margins, or entry strategy.
- Enhance market or source diversification: If you are an exporter, consider entering less politicized markets. If you are an importer, explore nearshoring (relocating to nearby countries) or reshoring (returning production to the country of origin) options to reduce dependence on high-risk trade blocks.
- Include tariffs and their potential variations as part of the Total Cost of Operation (TCO): Ensure that assumptions regarding freight, insurance, inventory, and routes take into account scenarios where tariffs increase or trade conditions become stricter.
- Colaborar con transitarios, aseguradoras y despachos aduaneros que tengan visibilidad de los cambios regulatorios: Un aviso temprano de una amenaza arancelaria o de una política de represalia puede marcar la diferencia entre reaccionar y anticipar.
For companies that export or import goods internationally, the conclusion is clear: tariff risk is no longer an external factor; it is a cost that must be actively managed. At AGC Newtral, we believe that those who anticipate, model, and act on this cost now will be better positioned when the market changes. Anticipating is not optional; it is essential.
