The container shipping market faces historic overcapacity in 2026, a result of the massive influx of vessels and subdued global demand. This is pushing base freight rates down, possibly to 2019 levels, creating a significant long-term negotiation opportunity for Spanish companies.
However, shipping lines will seek to offset the loss of revenue by maximizing fixed surcharges. The key strategy is two-dimensional negotiation: not only seeking the lowest base rate, but also prioritizing the balance between cost and service reliability, and anticipating route cancellations (blank sailings) as a capacity management tactic by the carriers.
Questions answered in this article
- What is the fundamental structural problem affecting container shipping rates?
- What has caused the overcapacity in the global shipping fleet?
- What is the direct consequence of this supply and demand imbalance on freight rates?
- What is the projected price outlook for 2026?
- How does this low price trend affect Spanish importers and exporters?
- What negotiation strategies are recommended to capitalize on this structural opportunity?
- What capacity management tactics should shippers anticipate?
The erosion of the base price
The growth of the container ship fleet continues to far outpace the growth of global demand, a fact that maintains constant downward pressure on base freight rates. This situation persists despite recurring geopolitical disruptions affecting shipping routes.
Why does this happen, and what is the root of the problem?
The main cause is a deep imbalance between supply and demand, resulting from a massive supply shock coinciding with a slowdown in global demand.
- Massive investment in new fleet (too many ships): During the exceptional profitability peaks of 2021-2022, driven by the pandemic and shortages of goods, shipping companies ordered a record number of new vessels. These large orders are being delivered en masse in 2025 and 2026, injecting capacity into the market at an unprecedented rate. Fleet growth is expected to be 3.6% in 2026.
- Slowing demand growth (less shipping): Following the pandemic boom, demand has returned to moderate growth rates, around 3% for 2026. Factors such as inflation, global economic uncertainty, and the reduction of inventories accumulated by retailers are responsible. The marginal increase in demand is therefore not enough to absorb the enormous number of new vessels.
- Fall in tariffs: As a direct consequence, spot tariffs from the Far East to Northern Europe have fallen by 41% compared to the previous year, and long-term tariffs have fallen by 24%.
Global consequences and consequences for Spain
Analysts (such as Drewry or Xeneta) agree that the fundamental outlook for 2026 is for low base freight rates, with the possibility of returning to 2019 levels if Suez routes normalize (Global consequences and for Spain).
- Impact on Spain: Container shipping rates from China have already fallen by 28% since the beginning of 2025. This trend puts Spanish companies in a very advantageous position to secure long-term, profitable base freight contracts.
- Carriers’ Strategy: The main effect for you is the aforementioned negotiating leverage. Shipping lines are heading back into loss territory, forcing them to be very aggressive with their base freight bids to secure volume. However, their tactic will be to offset this erosion by maximizing fixed surcharges.
Mitigation strategies and two-dimensional negotiation
At AGC Newtral, we emphasize: smart negotiation is key to capitalizing on this opportunity. The strategy must be two-dimensional. It’s not just about finding the lowest price, but about balancing the rate with operational reliability and anticipating the shipping lines’ tactics.
- Smart, Two-Dimensional Negotiation
- Use market intelligence (data from platforms like Xeneta or Drewry) to go beyond the base price. Your goal should be to identify the carrier that offers you the best balance between cost and resilience.
- Global schedule reliability fell to 61.4% in October 2025, with significant disparities between alliances. Reliability is a critical factor. A very low base freight rate with an unreliable carrier can translate into costly delays and stockouts.
- Anticipating Blank Sailings
- You must prepare for the main capacity management tactic that carriers will employ: blank sailings. As overcapacity puts pressure on prices, carriers will resort to these cancellations to artificially prop up spot prices.
- Anticipating these disruptions is essential to keeping the supply chain operational. Negotiate volume commitment clauses and excessive blank sailing penalties, or slightly diversify your volume between two main carriers to have a service alternative in case of cancellation.
- Focus on Total Cost (Base + Surcharges)
- Since shipping lines will try to compensate for the drop in base freight rates by maximizing fixed surcharges, your negotiation should focus on the total cost per TEU/FEU and not just the base rate (How this affects Spanish importers and exporters).
- A very low base rate can be a lure if mandatory and variable surcharges (such as the EU ETS or BAF) are excessively high. Demand clarity and, if possible, indexation of surcharges, as we explained with the EU ETS, to avoid volatility.
The maritime transport sector is experiencing a “structural opportunity” unlike anything we’ve seen in years. At AGC Newtral, we explain: the global container ship fleet is suffering from historic overcapacity. This imbalance is putting immense downward pressure on base freight rates, giving your company unprecedented negotiating leverage. You must seize this moment, but you must negotiate intelligently.
