Discover in this post how the return of ships to the Suez Canal is causing vessel bunching, saturating ports like Barcelona and freeing up 9% of global capacity. Spanish companies face a high risk of port omissions and delays of up to 20 days, jeopardizing the reliability of the supply chain—a problem already reported by 25% of the industry.
Questions we answer in this article
- Why might the reopening of the Suez Canal cause congestion in European ports?
- What is vessel bunching and how will it affect the reliability of maritime transport?
- How will the Port of Barcelona be affected by the return to the Red Sea?
- What percentage of global capacity will be freed up by returning to the Suez route?
- What specific strategies can Spanish companies implement to mitigate delays of 10 to 20 days?
- How can a company prevent its cargo from being unloaded at ports outside of Spain due to congestion?
The problem: a messy return to the Suez Canal
We are observing with extreme caution the potential normalization of vital shipping routes through the Suez Canal. However, reality is stubborn. Although major shipping companies, such as Maersk, have indicated that this is their most efficient route, promising to resume navigation “as soon as conditions allow,” safety remains the indisputable priority. The lesson of the recent past reminds us of this. Do you remember the “fiasco”? It occurred when the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) attempted to announce a return timetable. It was immediately refuted by the Danish shipping company, which prioritized the lives of its crew. The lesson is inescapable: the return will not be linear. It will, instead, be profoundly chaotic.
Causes of the problem: the double shock of capacity
This anticipation of the return, in reality, creates a logistical paradox that rests on two pillars. The stark and simple reality is that the long-term solution we all desire generates a disruptive short-term risk that we must manage.
The main cause, don’t forget, is the cessation of the diversions:
- The extended transit around the Cape of Good Hope, forced by the Red Sea crisis, absorbed nearly 9% of global container capacity.
- With the return to the shorter Suez route, all that capacity will be massively freed up in the global freight market. We project a shock of 2.1 million TEUs, equivalent to 6.5% of the global fleet. This is the driving force that will, over time, intensify downward pressure on freight rates.
The most imminent risk, however, is vessel bunching:
- The sudden change in routes means that ships, with their completely outdated itineraries, are arriving simultaneously at major European hubs.
- This creates extreme congestion. The capacity of ports to process this surge of ships will undoubtedly be overwhelmed immediately.
Consequences and how it affects Spain
The short-term impact will be profoundly disruptive. The reliability of your shipment is at stake. Yes, a drop in long-term prices is expected, we know that. But the resulting temporary congestion will absorb port capacity. This could even push up spot prices on Asia-Europe routes. The consultancy Sea-Intelligence authoritatively warns that a phased re-entry over eight weeks, the best-case scenario, would cause a 10% increase in container arrivals above historical congestion peaks. This is a major operational challenge for the entire value chain.
Direct impact in Spain:
- Our Mediterranean ports, with Barcelona at the forefront, are particularly vulnerable.
- They have already absorbed a double-digit increase in transshipment cargo due to diversions. Barcelona, specifically, experienced a 23.9% rise in its transshipment traffic.
- The collision of returning fleets with already saturated capacity creates an extremely high risk of port omissions and the emergence of chronic delays.
The reliability of the supply chain is at risk for all Spanish importers and exporters. 25% of companies in our country already reported being negatively affected by the crisis in the first quarter of 2024; this percentage rose to 45% in the industrial and commercial sectors. Transit times from Asia had already increased by 10 to 20 days. This scenario, with its consequent additional costs, could be repeated if the congestion gets out of control.
Mitigation strategies for our readers
- Strengthen your security inventory:
- Solution: Companies that rely on the Just-in-Time (JIT) model must, without exception, increase their buffer or safety stock.
- Why it works: It is essential to absorb the potential 10- to 20-day delays expected during peak vessel bunching. Having a stock buffer allows production to continue uninterrupted while the system clears.
- Guarantees the scale in the contract:
- Solution: Negotiate specific contractual clauses with your carrier. These should guarantee a stopover in the Spanish port you have contracted (Valencia, Barcelona, etc.).
- Why it works: This will mitigate the high risk of your cargo being unloaded in ports in neighboring countries (Genoa, for example). This practice is a common strategy used by shipping companies to avoid port congestion at the original destination. By stipulating a stopover in the contract, you shift the responsibility to the carrier.
- Diversify the gateway:
- Solution: Actively evaluate the use of Northern European ports with superior route reliability, such as Hamburg or Rotterdam.
- Why it works: They serve as an essential contingency plan. If Mediterranean ports become chronically congested, diverting the flow through the North ensures continuity. Although this involves higher land transport costs due to the need to move goods by road or rail to Spain, the losses due to downtime or stockouts far outweigh the additional logistical costs.
