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This article analyzes the entry into force of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, a carbon tax that will increase the cost of steel, aluminum, and cement imports in Spain. We explain the mandatory registration with the Spanish Tax Agency (AEAT) and how to avoid penalties through supplier audits and rigorous financial forecasting of emission costs to protect the importer’s profitability. Questions answered in this post: International trade doesn’t stop. However, sometimes the rules of the game change drastically. On January 1, 2026, a new bureaucratic hurdle will be erected in the European Union. It’s called the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM. It’s not just another formality. It’s a direct tax on carbon emissions linked to products like steel, aluminum, and cement. If you import these goods, the playing field has just shifted. The problem: pollution now has a price at customs. The problem is clear. Until now, producing outside Europe was, in many cases, cheaper because environmental regulations were more lenient. This created unfair competition. The CBAM (Carbon and Carbon Association) aims to correct this imbalance. The European Union wants to prevent carbon leakage. What exactly does this concept mean? Carbon leakage occurs when companies move their production to countries with less stringent climate policies to save costs. It’s pointless to clean up our industry if we continue importing pollution from third countries. Essentially, it’s about preventing the emissions we reduce here from ending up being produced elsewhere on the planet without any control. Therefore, the importer will have to bear the cost of that CO2. Why does this happen and what is the impact in Spain? Where does this change come from? Europe is leading the way in global decarbonization. By implementing this mechanism, it aims to ensure that foreign products pay the same for their pollution as those manufactured on European soil. In Spain, the impact is direct and operational. As an importer, you are required to register as an authorized declarant with the Spanish Tax Agency (AEAT). Failure to do so will result in customs delays. The penalties will be substantial. Your profit margins could evaporate if you don’t factor in the cost of the carbon certificates required to import your goods into the country. Our solutions to protect your business At AGC Newtral, we want you to navigate this transition safely. Don’t wait until the last minute. Here’s how to mitigate the impact: Planning is your best ally. We’re here to ensure your supply chain is as green as it is efficient.

The container shipping market faces historic overcapacity in 2026, a result of the massive influx of vessels and subdued global demand. This is pushing base freight rates down, possibly to 2019 levels, creating a significant long-term negotiation opportunity for Spanish companies. However, shipping lines will seek to offset the loss of revenue by maximizing fixed surcharges. The key strategy is two-dimensional negotiation: not only seeking the lowest base rate, but also prioritizing the balance between cost and service reliability, and anticipating route cancellations (blank sailings) as a capacity management tactic by the carriers. Questions answered in this article The erosion of the base price The growth of the container ship fleet continues to far outpace the growth of global demand, a fact that maintains constant downward pressure on base freight rates. This situation persists despite recurring geopolitical disruptions affecting shipping routes. Why does this happen, and what is the root of the problem? The main cause is a deep imbalance between supply and demand, resulting from a massive supply shock coinciding with a slowdown in global demand. Global consequences and consequences for Spain Analysts (such as Drewry or Xeneta) agree that the fundamental outlook for 2026 is for low base freight rates, with the possibility of returning to 2019 levels if Suez routes normalize (Global consequences and for Spain). Mitigation strategies and two-dimensional negotiation At AGC Newtral, we emphasize: smart negotiation is key to capitalizing on this opportunity. The strategy must be two-dimensional. It’s not just about finding the lowest price, but about balancing the rate with operational reliability and anticipating the shipping lines’ tactics. The maritime transport sector is experiencing a “structural opportunity” unlike anything we’ve seen in years. At AGC Newtral, we explain: the global container ship fleet is suffering from historic overcapacity. This imbalance is putting immense downward pressure on base freight rates, giving your company unprecedented negotiating leverage. You must seize this moment, but you must negotiate intelligently.

The ocean freight market is headed for a 25% structural deflation by 2026 due to global overcapacity of vessels ordered after the pandemic and weak demand. The potential normalization of traffic in the Red Sea will accelerate this decline by releasing tonnage into the market. At AGC Newtral, we recommend focusing your strategy on contractual flexibility with adjustment clauses to capitalize on minimum prices and on auditing the total logistics cost, prioritizing service reliability over the base price. Furthermore, managing geopolitical risk requires maintaining the Cape of Good Hope route as a resilient alternative and assessing the stability of the Panama Canal. Preguntas que hemos resuelto en este artículo At AGC Newtral, our mission is to ensure you, as an importer or exporter, always have a competitive edge. The global maritime market is at a critical crossroads: spot rates are showing a technical rebound, but the 2026 horizon is marked by unavoidable structural overcapacity. We are facing a projected price collapse. It is imperative that you understand the dynamics driving these changes in order to restructure your contracting strategy. We have analyzed expert forecasts and the geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Here we explain the problem, why it is happening, and how you can prepare. The inevitable 25% drop in spot rates: imbalance and deflation The biggest medium-term challenge for strategic planning is the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand that is looming. Desequilibrio de capacidad vs demanda Analysts Xeneta and Drewry have issued a stark warning: global container ship capacity growth (3.6%) will outpace demand growth (3.0%) in 2026. This imbalance is the driving force behind an average 25% drop in spot rates during 2026, with a 10% decline for long-term container contracts (LTCs). The cause of this oversupply is straightforward: the massive influx of vessels ordered during the peak years following the pandemic. Now, this structural excess tonnage is reaching the market. At the same time, demand remains weak. The global economic slowdown, coupled with tariff policies and adjustments in consumption, has reduced import volumes. Spain, as a key hub in the Mediterranean and a gateway to Asia and Europe, will directly feel this impact. The drop in spot prices will immediately make imports cheaper, but weak global demand is a symptom of economic uncertainty that affects us all.ación, pero la debilidad de la demanda global es un síntoma de incertidumbre económica que nos afecta a todos. Take advantage of deflation with contractual flexibility The price drop gives you considerable negotiating power. You should maximize your ability to take advantage of these future lows as follows: Geopolitics as an accelerator of the fall and the bifurcation of risk The year 2024 saw carriers achieve unexpected profitability thanks to geopolitical disruptions, such as the Red Sea trade dispute, which acted as a “capacity buffer” by consuming tonnage on longer routes. Without that buffer, overcapacity will suddenly emerge. The risk of normalization in the Red Sea If security in the Red Sea is effectively and sustainably restored, the capacity released to the global market will be enormous. This capacity will flood the Transpacific and Asia-Europe markets. Therefore, the normalization of the Red Sea route will accelerate the anticipated 25% price decline by removing the last significant constraint on oversupply. Why does this happen and how does it affect Spain? The carriers’ caution is the crux of the matter: they do not expect full normalization before the second quarter of 2026 at the earliest. Although Allied War Risk Premiums (AWRPs) have fallen from 0.5% to around 0.2% following a truce, shipping lines are demanding “proof through multiple safe transits” before a full return. For Spain, this means that while the arrival of additional capacity will lower Asia-Europe freight rates, the risk has shifted to the Persian Gulf, where the Iranian escalation has doubled risk premiums. Risk management in the Middle East is now geographically bifurcated. You shouldn’t resume traffic through Suez immediately just because the risk of attack has decreased. Caution is the best insurance policy. The variable cost trap: beyond the base price Although base freight rates fall, variable costs and service quality remain pain points for the shipper, eating away at the margin. Overcharges and lack of service Indirect costs continue to rise. The Fuel Surcharge (BFS) has increased from 5.4% to 6.9% as of December 2025. Furthermore, the overall service reliability (with only 61.4% reliability) imposes a high non-monetary cost in the form of transit time volatility. Carriers are trying to offset the drop in spot rates with adjustments to surcharges to maintain their profit margins. The BFS increase is due to fluctuations in crude oil prices. The service reliability is a consequence of extended routes and constant rescheduling. For you, as a shipper in Spain, this means that the 25% drop in the base rate can be misleading if the increased surcharges and logistical delays erode your margin. We need to look at the total cost. Total cost audit Don’t settle for a low base price. You must audit the total cost of your logistics to avoid the hidden cost trap.

Global logistics for 2026 is caught between the false calm of the Red Sea and a new opportunity in the Panama Canal. We explain why the risk has shifted and how to negotiate advantageous rates. In the Red Sea, lower insurance costs don’t guarantee security, as the risk has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the maintenance of the Cape of Good Hope route to ensure stability. Conversely, the Panama Canal is free of draft restrictions, but low demand for front-loading in the US creates a unique negotiation window to secure preferential rates and space for 2026. Questions we have answered in this article Global logistics no longer battles a single front, but rather multiple isolated fires demanding diametrically opposed strategies. At AGC Newtral, we’ve analyzed the landscape for 2026, and the conclusion is undeniable: risk management has become fragmented. It’s no longer enough to simply avoid open conflict zones; now, you must understand the microeconomics and unique geopolitics of each strategic corridor. This includes the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Panama Canal. Below, we break down, point by point, what’s happening at these vital chokepoints for your trade with Spain. We’ll show you how to protect your supply chain. The Middle East: The Trap of False Calm and Bifurcated Risk The market is sending mixed signals that could mislead any trader. On the one hand, we see a sense of apparent normalization in the Red Sea. This is reflected in a dramatic drop in insurance costs, tempting one to think of an imminent return to the Suez route. However, this sense of security is, in our view, partial and deeply misleading. On the other hand, the risk of conflict has not disappeared, it has simply shifted a few kilometers east, now concentrated in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The reasons for the events and how they affect Spain Why aren’t major shipping companies returning if insuring vessels is cheaper? Simple: operational trust is broken. A military re-escalation could happen in a matter of hours. The conflict has mutated in form and geography, forcing us to adopt a geographically “bifurcated” perspective in risk assessment. The de-escalation in the Red Sea has been met with relief by insurers, who have reduced additional war risk premiums from 0.5% to 0.2% of the vessel’s value. This makes passage through the Suez Canal, in theory, tolerable. However, traffic remains depressed: barely 36 ships a day will cross the canal in 2025, a figure far lower than in 2023. The recent Iranian seizure of the oil tanker Talara in the Persian Gulf has been interpreted as a significant escalation. This incident, in which state forces intercepted a civilian vessel in strategic waters, has triggered alarm bells in the Strait of Hormuz. The cost of risk in this key area, which channels a large portion of the world’s crude oil, has doubled. The impact on Spanish companies is twofold: Our solution: stick to the long route and review your policies At AGC Newtral, we strongly recommend that you maintain the route around the Cape of Good Hope until at least the second quarter of 2026. Why we recommend this: Although insurance costs in Suez have decreased, operational volatility is extreme. Freight quotes are valid for barely 24 hours, and cancellation clauses are only valid for 96 hours. You cannot plan a stable supply chain with this level of uncertainty. Accepting the extra 10 to 14 days of transit around Africa guarantees that your goods will reach port, eliminating the risk of being caught in a sudden blockade. If, due to the nature of your products, you must operate in the Persian Gulf, you need to review your insurance coverage immediately. Do this to absorb the impact of the 60% increase in hull and machinery insurance premiums. Panama Canal: When there is plenty of water but not enough demand For a long time, the lack of rain and drought were the biggest logistical challenge in Panama. However, now that the water has returned and the restrictions have been lifted, the problem is purely economic. The Panama Canal is operating at full technical capacity, but ships simply aren’t arriving in the volumes that were expected by 2026. Idle capacity is a reality. The reasons for the events and how they affect Spain The Panama Canal Authority has achieved a resounding operational success. They have maintained the maximum draft of 50 feet throughout the 2025 dry season. The specter of physical or draft restrictions has been eliminated. This is excellent news for Spanish companies with interests in the Pacific or the US East Coast. The risk of having to divert containers or reduce cargo due to draft issues has been eliminated. Despite this, the projection for 2026 is only 33 transits per day. This figure is below its capacity of 36, a key fact. The main reason is the phenomenon of “frontloading”: companies in the US have massively brought forward their imports to avoid future tariffs. This has created artificial demand now, which will leave a noticeable gap throughout 2026. Container ships are the engine of the canal, generating 45% of its revenue. Therefore, this decline is a barometer of weak demand. For the Spanish exporter operating with Latin America or the US West Coast, this is a warning sign about purchasing power, but, paradoxically, a huge logistical opportunity. Our solution: negotiate aggressively and prioritize this route Take advantage of the canal’s idle capacity. Our recommendation is to negotiate aggressively and prioritize this route in your freight contracts. Why we suggest this: Unlike the volatile Suez route, Panama is now an absolutely reliable and predictable corridor. With transit demand declining in 2026, shipping lines will have ample space and, more importantly, the need to fill their vessels. This is the perfect time to negotiate preferential rates on routes through the canal. Use weak demand to your advantage. Secure contracts that guarantee you space at a competitive price. This will ensure your

From 2026, European maritime transport will face a 45% increase in its emissions surcharge (EMS/ESS), resulting from the obligation to declare 100% of emissions under the EU ETS, a fixed cost of 130 USD/FEU unavoidable for Spanish routes with the EU. We recommend three key cost mitigation strategies: rigorous budgeting of the new COGS surcharge, evaluation of Green Hedging services (ECO Delivery) to obtain credits against the surcharge, and negotiation of clauses indexed to the actual price of emissions allowances (EUAs) with shipping lines to manage volatility risk. Questions answered in this article The unavoidable fixed cost: 100% EU ETS coverage The problem European regulations are about to impose a substantial increase in maritime operating costs, a reality that will directly impact your supply chain. From January 1, 2026, shipping companies will be required to declare 100% of their verified CO2 emissions for voyages within the European Union (EU). Why does this happen, and what is the root of the problem? The origin of this cost lies in the legislation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the European Union’s key tool for achieving climate neutrality by 2050 (The regulatory shock: a new fixed cost). This mandate stems directly from the European Green Deal, a regulatory framework that leaves no room for evasion. How does this affect Spain? The impact is immediate and quantifiable: the emissions surcharge (EMS/ESS) is expected to increase by approximately 45% in 2026 (Hapag-Lloyd anticipates this in its press releases). Spain is intrinsically linked to this cost. Given its dependence on maritime traffic with the EU/EEA, your company will face these surcharges on all its maritime operations with European ports. Mitigation strategies for your business At AGC Newtral, we don’t just report the problem. Action is our response. We can’t prevent regulation, but we can help you mitigate its impact on your logistics profitability. Here are three essential strategies your team should implement immediately: At AGC Newtral, we know that logistics doesn’t wait. We want to be clear with you about the imminent 45% increase in the European Maritime Emissions Surcharge (EMS/ESS). This change, far from being a rumor, is a fixed, unavoidable cost that your business will have to absorb starting in 2026. The question is no longer whether it will happen, but how you will mitigate its impact on your profitability.

Discover in this post how the return of ships to the Suez Canal is causing vessel bunching, saturating ports like Barcelona and freeing up 9% of global capacity. Spanish companies face a high risk of port omissions and delays of up to 20 days, jeopardizing the reliability of the supply chain—a problem already reported by 25% of the industry. Questions we answer in this article The problem: a messy return to the Suez Canal We are observing with extreme caution the potential normalization of vital shipping routes through the Suez Canal. However, reality is stubborn. Although major shipping companies, such as Maersk, have indicated that this is their most efficient route, promising to resume navigation “as soon as conditions allow,” safety remains the indisputable priority. The lesson of the recent past reminds us of this. Do you remember the “fiasco”? It occurred when the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) attempted to announce a return timetable. It was immediately refuted by the Danish shipping company, which prioritized the lives of its crew. The lesson is inescapable: the return will not be linear. It will, instead, be profoundly chaotic. Causes of the problem: the double shock of capacity This anticipation of the return, in reality, creates a logistical paradox that rests on two pillars. The stark and simple reality is that the long-term solution we all desire generates a disruptive short-term risk that we must manage. The main cause, don’t forget, is the cessation of the diversions: The most imminent risk, however, is vessel bunching: Consequences and how it affects Spain The short-term impact will be profoundly disruptive. The reliability of your shipment is at stake. Yes, a drop in long-term prices is expected, we know that. But the resulting temporary congestion will absorb port capacity. This could even push up spot prices on Asia-Europe routes. The consultancy Sea-Intelligence authoritatively warns that a phased re-entry over eight weeks, the best-case scenario, would cause a 10% increase in container arrivals above historical congestion peaks. This is a major operational challenge for the entire value chain. Direct impact in Spain: The reliability of the supply chain is at risk for all Spanish importers and exporters. 25% of companies in our country already reported being negatively affected by the crisis in the first quarter of 2024; this percentage rose to 45% in the industrial and commercial sectors. Transit times from Asia had already increased by 10 to 20 days. This scenario, with its consequent additional costs, could be repeated if the congestion gets out of control. Mitigation strategies for our readers

Data from the end of November paints a picture of apparent relief across the globe. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 2% week-on-week, settling at $1,806 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Rates from Shanghai to Genoa (a vital Mediterranean port) remained close to $2,300. This weakness reflects structural overcapacity: the global fleet is growing by 6.9% while demand is only increasing by 3%. However, this calm masks a tactical offensive by the carriers. Shipping lines have announced drastic increases in Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates for the Far East-Mediterranean route. MSC has set a base target price of $4,750 USD per 40′ HC for the Western Mediterranean, effective mid-December. CMA CGM has announced even higher maximum targets, around $6,300 USD. Why the tactical aggression? This disparity between the spot price (USD 2,300) and the FAK target price (USD 4,750) is not accidental. It is a yield management strategy employed by the major shipping lines, which operate in a highly concentrated market. Faced with the certainty of an oversupply that depresses immediate prices, carriers use FAK announcements to establish an artificially high trading floor for 2026 contracts. Their goal is not to collect $4,750 immediately, but to force shippers (and, by extension, consumers) to accept a substantial premium over actual market rates in exchange for guaranteed space. This upward pressure could reintroduce instability into the cost chain, impacting inflation of imported goods. Economic implications and transparency solutions The solution to this price manipulation lies in the widespread adoption of transparency and risk hedging instruments:

A crucial move in the simmering trade war between the US and China has provided a temporary respite for global logistics. The US Trade Representative (USTR) and China have agreed to suspend, for one year, the new, high mutual port fees. These fees, which originally came into effect in October 2025 and could amount to up to $1.5 million USD per port call for ships built or operated by China, seek to put pressure on China for its dominance in the maritime and shipbuilding sector. Why is suspension critical? The suspension does not resolve the underlying tension, but rather postpones it. Its importance lies in the systemic impact that the rates would have. Had the tariffs continued, many shipping lines would have had to urgently reassign affected vessels away from US routes to avoid exorbitant costs. This extra capacity would have been forcibly injected into other trades, such as the Asia-Europe/Mediterranean route, generating instability and a risk of logistical collapse. The truce avoids this capacity shock and temporarily stabilizes the global fleet allocation. Strategic implications and the new paradigm of regionalization The ongoing weaponization of trade and logistics is forcing Europe, and therefore Spain, to accelerate its strategy of strategic autonomy:

Two factors have combined to establish a significantly higher cost floor for maritime transport to Spain: Implications for national logistics and the consumer The new reality dictates that, even if overcapacity puts pressure on the base price, the total final freight cost for Spain has a high and rising minimum. The solution is to reduce exposure to maritime traffic in intraregional shipments. This week’s lesson is clear: structural and geopolitical forces are forcing a complete reconfiguration of global logistics. Spain’s economic resilience will depend on its companies’ ability to embrace indexation, regionalization, and rail intermodality.

Shipping in Europe is about to face a massive cost restructuring. Sustainability is no longer optional; it’s a fixed, structural operating cost. The European Union (EU) has fully integrated the sector into its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), transforming its climate commitment into an immediate economic challenge for any company that relies on the maritime supply chain. At ACG Newtral, we analyze the imminent increase in costs and propose strategies to minimize the impact on your logistics operations. The impending escalation: why costs will rise by up to 43% The planned increase in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) surcharges, expected to reach approximately 43% in the first quarter of 2026, is not simply an inflation adjustment. It is the direct result of a radical regulatory tightening that ends the transition period. The two main causes of this increase in the “structural rate” are: The key to the problem: conversion by Global Warming Potential (GWP) The real impact of including CH4 and NO lies in their Global Warming Potential (GWP). The EU ETS operates using the European Union Allocation (EUA), which is equivalent to one tonne of CO2. To include other gases, the GWP is used to convert them to “tonnes of CO2 equivalent” (CO2e). As shown below, these gases are dramatically more expensive per tonne emitted: Greenhouse Gas (GHG) GWP at 100 years (Approx.) Cost in EU ETS (USA) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 1 1 ton = 1 EUA Methane (CH4) 28 – 30 1 ton = 28-30 EUA Nitrous Oxide (NO) 265 – 298 1 ton = 265-298 EUA Methane (released as methane slip by LNG carriers) has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) 28 times higher than that of CO2, and nitrous oxide is almost 300 times more potent than CO2. This means that small amounts of these gases released during combustion translate into an exponentially higher surcharge cost for the shipping company, which is inevitably passed on to the end customer. Strategic solutions for clients: avoiding and minimizing the problem The cost of carbon is now a strategic variable. The best defense for our clients is planning and informed partner selection. Minimization strategy: fleet selection Although the fee is mandatory, the passed-on surcharge can be minimized by selecting shipping companies with more efficient fleets. Avoidance strategy: diversification and intermodal logistics The most direct way to avoid the maritime surcharge is to reduce exposure to it. Control strategy: load efficiency Since the cost is prorated per container (TEU), optimizing the use of the unit is essential. The ACG Newtral value proposition The EU ETS is a permanent structural cost. Our goal is to turn the 2026 challenge into a competitive advantage for your business through proactive planning. At ACG Newtral, we actively monitor fleet efficiency and analyze the implicit costs of greenhouse gases. We are committed to providing you with smart logistics options that integrate the true cost of carbon, ensuring your supply chain is both profitable and sustainable.